Updates on what I’ve been doing – March 10

I slipped on the ice a couple of weeks ago and broke my arm.  Needless to say, my productivity has significantly decreased.  Fortunately, it was a clean break with no dislocation, so I only have to suffer the inconvenience of a cast on my left arm for a few weeks.  No surgery and not terribly painful.

Here’s the progress on my current projects and links to some things I found worth reading over the past week.

Voting:  My attorney has promised to get the lawsuit paper filled out this week.  Hopefully, we’ll see some progress there soon.

Poker:  I’ve doubled the games I’ve input to 100.  Here are the stats for the first 100 all in hands of 2013:

He had 44 wins, giving him a percent win of .44,  not too far below the expectation of wins. His average probability of winning the hand was 0.505034  His probability of having 44 or fewer wins is BINOMDIST(44,100,.505034, 1)=0.11487, which indicates his actual wins are not statistically significantly different from his expected wins. Even the the percent wins has not changed and the prob. of wins is not very different, the larger sample size lowers the probability considerably.

If we analyze including ties, he has 48 successes with an average probability of success of 0.556304.  (Average prob of tie is 0.051269) His probability of having 48 or fewer wins and ties is BINOMDIST(48,50, 0.556304, 1)=0.076, which is about the same as prob of wins alone but has entered into the territory of statistically significant – chances are lower than 10% of having luck this bad.

For the mean of 100 tries with an expected mean of 0.53067 compared with an actual mean of  0.464646.   We get a prob. of 0.0961 which lies between the two binomial distribution computations.

The point of doing the analysis is 3 different ways is to establish the robustness of the estimation.  The 6 significant figure decimal points is an illusion. It isn’t really that accurate.  But with the three different methods, we can have confidence in stating that the actual probability of his hands consistently falling below average is less than 0.12.

Generic Basis Values:  Finally getting started on my first commissioned report including generic basis values. The analysis shouldn’t be a problem but I am still finding it impossible to concentrate on writing about generic basis values whether at work or at home.  I presume this is what they mean by writer’s block.

What I am writing about has been homeschooling at Love, Joy, Feminism:

Some excellent dialog going on there last week