I have managed to input all of Mark’s backlog of poker hands to date. He has played, both on-line and at garagepoker a total of 379 hands with 203 wins and 11 chopped pots giving him 0.5356 proportion of wins and 0.0290 proportion of ties and .5646 proportion of wins and ties combined. His average probability of winning was .5452. The average probability of a tie was .0397.
The probability of getting 203 or fewer wins out of 379 hands with a prob. of winning of 0.5452 is .37. The probability of getting 11 or fewer ties out of 379 hands with a prob. of a tie being 0.0397 is .18. The probability of getting 214 wins or ties with an average prob. of a win or tie being .5646 is .23.
If you’re interested, I’ve uploaded my excel analysis file. It has a simulation of Mark’s games. For some reason, the simulation has a lot more results below average than above average. I’ll have to ponder that and see if I can figure out why.
I’ve updated my excel file.